We’re about a third of the way through the NBA season, and anyone following along on the app knows I love to blast this league every night from every angle. In my quest for volume, I’ve noticed sports I don’t follow as much sometimes turn out to perform better than ones where my biases creep in. The Association has definitely fallen into that category over the last few seasons.
I love betting NBA because I can really squeeze a lot of volume out of the card almost nightly. Look in the mirror and really decide if you have the focus and bandwidth to take on NBA Volume betting before you dive in. It takes up a lot of time hitting 1h, Full Game and 2h - you have to fake reasons to your girlfriend or wife why you have to “check a work email” for the sixth time at her sisters Holiday party. Her Uncle Rick is telling the same story you’ve heard every year about the time he shit his pants at a Cubs game, and you’re trying to get in Hawks +8 2h without anyone noticing. It’s the grind we choose my friends.
I’m going to share an angle today that I like. This is the first season I’m running it, so I wanted to play it out in practice, and not just deliver a theory to the crew. Let’s take a look:
Just about as sweet as you can get - only 3 line items, and zero moving parts.
Teams that are averaging missing the spread by 10 or more points over 5 games! Wrap your head around how abysmal of a stretch you are in ATS if you are missing the number by that much. Remember, a spread is still a performance metric of how a team should perform. When we are looking at teams that have missed the spread by that much over 5 games, we are grabbing teams that people have been saying, “I won’t bet (insert dog shit team here) anymore, they are unbettable!.”
The next part is important to me - It’s teams that are dogs (spread 0 to +999) and the game occurs in the first 40% of the season. Bettors see these teams perform, see them being blown out, the bettor is losing his bets he’s made and they write them off. Recency bias creeps in.
Well, we really don’t know that much about a team after game 9, 14, 25, etc. The picture isn’t totally clear even though many of us have made up our minds about who sucks and who’s for real. These teams we are backing are bad, but are they that bad?
Tonight - The Nets visit New Orleans resident horrible basketball team, The Pelicans. With a line of -2 I assume Joe P will line up to get down bigly on the Brooklyn Nets. I would even say wait this one out for a few hours and see if the line inflates even more. That’s right my friends, we are going to back the 6-21 Pelicans and they will be very short home dogs. In the past few games these guys have been blown out and looked pathetic doing it.
They lost as a pickem, 130-119 to the Magic.
A few nights before that the Bucks rolled them as +9 dogs, 127-112.
The peak of the futility came on Dec 7th when the Pelicans lost by FORTY SIX points - 130-84 to the Dallas Mavericks. The Pelicans have been horrid this month, and I love the angle we’ve built out to back them.
Build this out in BetLabs - Back the Pelicans +2, and Cash dat!