Cue up yet another beautiful Saturday. Embrace this, the season is winding down. Bowl season will be upon us, and then College Football will hibernate for a long and arduous 8 months. This Saturday night when you’re out with the lady, pick a seat at the bar so you can look in her direction, but you’re looking right past her so you can follow the Nevada at Fresno St game. Sneak that extra score refresh under the table at dinner to see if Troy v ULL stayed UNDER 71. Dial up a beer money 6 team parlay. Bet your coworker $20 that his alma mater will get jailhoused this weekend. These opportunities are evaporating for another year.
I hope we get a little bit of chaos this weekend. I’m in the mood for someone in the Top 10 to fuck it all up. I want DEFCON 5 Jesse Palmer. Both PAC-12 contenders hit the road as big favorites down in the Arizona desert. It feels so appropriate that either Oregon or Utah shits the bed and sends the entire conference home for the playoffs. I’m not necessarily making some bold claim that one of them is losing this weekend, but it would feel very PAC-12. Ohio St could be in a look ahead spot against a live Penn St. Next week they hit the road to play Michigan. I expect the Buckeyes to win out, but they will be tested these next two weeks.
Last week's GWB Betting Guide hit us for another 0-2 week. Who picks these games!? ULL never got it going as -28 Favorites vs South Alabama. Stanford hung around for a few quarters, but they couldn’t sustain drives and fizzled out a few times in the redzone as Washington St pulled away. Can we get 2 wins right back? Let’s take a look at what we’re firing on this weekend.
Duke +7 at Wake Forest
Dusting off one of the experimental systems. We had a good week when we only ran with those, so I wanted to run it back and bring those winnings vibes. Remember, with angles like this, I like what’s going on - there is some logic to it - but I’m turned off by line items, sample, cherry picked ranges, any combination of things. Let’s take a look at what scream Blue Devils this weekend:
Longtime readers know I’m always looking at the relationship between the spread and the total. I wanted to examine what happened when we had a total drop for dogs in my “moderate dog” range.
Pinnacle opened this game at 53.5/+6.5. Winds will be around 7-10 mph and the UNDER has been hit a few times causing it to drop to 49.5 across the market.
Duke is also now sitting around +7. Strictly in terms of the Total/Spread relationship - is that +7 more valuable with bookmakers projecting 49.5 points? I think so.
The angle above looks at visiting moderate dogs with a total drop of 3 or more. The logic is there to me. We have weather pushing us into a Low Total Road Dog type scenario for games that bookmakers implied the dog would score more points when they set the opening total.
Just from a capping standpoint, this spot says Duke to me. They are only getting 17% of the spread tickets as a +7 Conference Road Dog? Really? What a sweet spot to be backing Duke. Wake Forest was just completely dismantled last weekend and now every Joe P is lining up to back them. Seems like such a natural spot to take Duke - and we have Total Drop angle that supports that road dog here as well. +7, cash dat!
Fresno St -14 vs Nevada
Get that good seat at the bar! You’ll be sweating this late night banger while out on date night.
I don’t want to call this next angle “experimental” but it relies on tracked spread tickets as the main component. Let’s take a look:
Conference Home Favorites getting less than a third of spread tickets. Pretty damn clean and hitting at 66% ATS.
I love that this line has gone out to -14 since opening at -12/-12.5. I’m shocked people are betting Nevada. Has anyone watched them this year? I feel like every one of their games is either Fade Nevada or No Bet. In this instance, we will obviously fading Nevada.
While the GWB is making this bet based on the angle above. There is any interesting subplot going on that leads us to fade the Wolf Pack this Saturday night.
I know the sample size is small, but I think someone knows Head Coach Jay Norvells weak spots. What do I mean by that? Since he took over at Nevada, when the line goes against him, he’s 5-13 ATS. As a visitor he’s a ridiculous 1-7 ATS with an ATS Margin of 9.4! When sharps go against Norvells Wolf Pack he is missing the spread by 9.4 points as a visitor! That’s pretty severe. This isn’t one or two games, this is average over 8 games, which means he is getting blown out in these spots. I’m genuinely at a loss how this Wolf Pack team is receiving over 70% of the spread tickets at this point.
Fresno St is a Contrarian Home Favorite. The line has moved out. Jay Norvells teams crater when they are steamed against on the road. This has Favorite to the UNDER Blowout written all over it. Bulldogs -14, Cash dat!
GWB Betting Guide YTD: 12-12-1 -0.84 U