GWB College Football Betting Guide: Week 12

What an awesome weekend of College Football. I hope everyone enjoyed the epic slate. LSU vs Bama obviously stole the show, with Jeaux Burreaux trying to cement his Heisman spot a few weeks early. MInnesota, the little team that could beat #4 PSU straight up. Iowa St took OU to the absolute limit. Rocky Long made sure the Aztecs continued their streak of 174 games straight to the UNDER. It was a fun Saturday for sure, and with the way the CFP is ranking these teams they are making sure it is pure made for TV excitement. I’m having a losing year betting College Football. But, strangely enough, this has been the most fun I’ve had betting this sport in a few years. It’s a mix of a few things: This community, the ability to write about it, bet it, and live it. Holding a sizeable piece of Burreaux Heisman. Knowing the ups and downs of betting all sports - some years things just don’t come together. I’ve learned that the wins manifest themselves in other spots. Let’s keep the fun going while betting College Football.

The 5 Star Diamond Lock Streak had to end at some point. After going 2-0 two weeks ago, the GWB College Betting Guide walked you right into an 0-2 week. I loved the info, but the outcomes were wild. That Miami UNDER 48.5? Well, the Canes put up 52 points by themselves through 3Q. At least it was a complete no sweat loss as the game ended 52-27. Michigan St -14.5 looked like we were taking it to the window. Sparty had run up a 34-10 lead and we looked safe into the 4th. Oh you know, Illinois just managed to rip off TWENTY SEVEN 4th quarter points to not only blow through the cover, but to win SU. Another impressive outing by Lovie Smith. I never thought I would ever write that last sentence as long as I lived on this earth.

So what the hell are we firing on this week?

ULL -28 at South Alabama

ULL rolls into South Bama this weekend as really big road favorites. I feel like S Bama has been apart of a lot of angles this year. That happens often when we’re dealing with teams that play to extremes. Low scoring, can’t win, can’t be stopped on O, undefeated covering machines - you get the idea. South Bama is one of those just putrid teams that can’t score and can’t win. Some weeks we fade, some weeks we follow. This week we will be fading these poor kids. I’m running back an angle from a few weeks ago because A) I absolutely love it and it’s having a solid season and B) We’ve been picking up new followers at a solid clip and I want to share what I think is a pure banger and C) I want to look at it in a sort of different light and examine what is really going on with it.

Curse time! This angle has ripped off 12 straight wins. It’s 4-0 this season and it only performs better as the year goes on. We cashed Auburn with it about 5 weeks ago. Let’s take a look:

Screen-Shot-2019-11-13-at-7.23.27-PM

It’s so beautiful when a system looks back at you with those past results. Let’s tack on another W this week.

I wonder what it is that is successful about fading “bad” teams who are at +14.5 or greater at home and the opponent is on a road trip. As always, we must consider some randomness when dealing with about 90 games that is hitting around 70% ATS. I personally think there is more than randomness happening here. It’s not en vogue by any means, but I do think there is an element of capping a players psyche within this system. I’m searching for a narrative to maybe help us understand why such a clean system would perform so well.

Simply put, do teams who are that bad give a shit about competing when they are such dogs? I know that is a crazy broad stroke to make for a system with 90 plays, but if you’re 1-6 taking the field in early November, how much are you looking to hang around when you’re a +24 dog? You go down 21-0, how much fight do you have left in you knowing bowl games are out of reach and the season is probably viewed as a disaster? Maybe some of that mindset is built into the success of this angle.

The Ragin’ Cajuns are a buzzsaw team this year. Rushing for over 150 yards a game and putting up almost 40 points every weekend. Feels like a fast start on that -28 and South Alabama will shrivel up into the same inept team they have been all season. It doesn’t help that S Bama is a turn style against the run. Twice they have given up over 300 yards on the ground this season. You’re reading that correctly. This game will wear on and ULL will continue to pour it on. The GWB will be riding the -28, but I will also be looking for a 2h line for ULL. Teams that continue to pound the ball often break runs and finish drives late in games vs bad teams.

Somewhere in this angle we capture the idea of outmatched players on bad teams letting up as games wear on against superior opponents.

ULL -28, cash dat!

Stanford +10.5/+11 at Wash St

Line shop this game. A few hours ago KJ Costello(QB) was officially listed as doubtful so there are a few shops hanging +11 as I write this. Personally, I don’t love this play. I will be on it light or not at all come Saturday afternoon. In the context of GWB, I love this play and the angle we get to look at.

This is a weirdly bet game so far this week. Divisional game, low bet. 60% of tickets tracked so far have come in on Stanford. No real narrative or storyline. Small move towards Washington St. Both teams underachieving on the year. There’s not much to love when reading the board. Nobody will give a shit except for alumni, parents, and bettors. So what angle am I seeing that points me to Stanford? Let’s take a look:

Stanford1114

I really love this system. It’s almost perfect in its simplicity:

We have conference road dogs - in the “manageable” range of dog I talk about here - on an away streak. They come to town to play a team of a loss or two. Such a basic and simple idea.

The total range is the only piece of this puzzle I can’t fully explain. I think it absolutely has something to do with spread differential and allowing their to be enough implied points to support the dog scoring. A range of 57 to 9999 points is night and day compared to 0-56. Let’s take a look:

Total1

100+ games. More or less well distributed wins once we get over 57. Let’s look at 0-56.5:

Total2

A small profit, but essentially flat after 200+ games.

We are dealing a little over a 300 game sample size, and there seems to be a definitive line in the sand once we hit 57+ points with this angle. I think randomness has to be considered to some degree. I’m very interested to see how this angle looks in 2030. Will it even out with another 250 games of data? The longer it goes on being successful at 57+ points, the more I will be led to believe that there is some relationship with that Dog/Total range and success for the conference visitor in that situation.

In the context of this game - I like that I have a lone system lit on Stanford. This feels like an under the radar game where Stanford will simply hang around all afternoon. Both teams are still playing for a bowl game. Washington St is -10.5 but has been abysmal in Conference play. In 9 games this year, much of Washington State’s dominance was against New Mexico State and University of Northern Colorado. They have lost SU to Cal and UCLA as considerable favorites. Modeling is all the rage, but remember information entered into your model needs context. Does this game have an element of Washington St being overvalued? I tend to lean that way.

Conference Road Dogs vs Team on Losing Streak - Stanford +10.5, cash dat!

GWB Betting Guide YTD: 12-10-1 +1.16 U

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