GWB College Football Betting Guide: Week 11

What a wild few months of roller coaster betting it has been for me. On the calendar year I’m sitting around +45 Units across all sports. That is pure grind my friends. Thousands of bets and cashing somewhere around 4 or 5 Units per month. What makes it harder to navigate is that those wins and losses come in ridiculous swings. +80 Units in a random week in March on NHL and NBA. -25 Units on opening night of College Basketball. I feel like I talk about it every week, but the mental game of Sports Betting as something more than a weekend hobby is unforgiving.

This year I have tried to take on more sports to bet which means more work in regards to research, Labs, and models. I’ve hired a part time person to help on the organizational and entry side of the models. I can’t tell yet if it’s all worth it in the sense of money made or not. There will be a learning curve and mistakes made along the way as I try to scale my betting operation as large as I can. Unfortunately, in this realm others who have built syndicates with a small team of modelers and hundreds of outs aren’t really willing to open the door and show eager guys like me the best way to approach things. Outs, liquidity, and simply time in the day to monitor lines is becoming a challenge. This means I’m left trying to do it from scratch and figuring it out as I go.

College football fans - what a weekend we have on tap! We are absolutely loaded with meaningful games and I’m all for it. My thoughts on the CFP Rankings - just a made for TV list that has no bearing on where teams should actually be slated. We can all agree on that right? The top 4 of Ohio St, LSU, Bama, Penn St with Clemson, Georgia, Oregon, and Utah trailing is a lubed up talking head circle jerk set up of “What if team X beats team Y” ad nauseam. I’m already having nightmares of an inescapable Jesse Palmer spectre following me through my daily routine, “What will the committee do with a 1 loss Ohio St and an undefeated Minnesota beating Penn St for the B1G 10 Championship? Shockwaves will ripple through the fabric of time and space.”

Penn St at Minnesota, LSU at Bama, Baylor at TCU, Oklahoma vs Iowa St, Clemson at NC State. What a gift. Remember what we said last week? These are the good times. If you’re a high volume grinder, look up from your cynicism and black heart you’ve molded, and enjoy a quarter or two this weekend without the sweat.

Bust out the champagne! GWB Betting Guide did a little 2-0 smash and grab! We shared some out there angles and we took it to the window. Coastal Carolina ended the game on a 2 pt conversion and won 36-35, cashing our +1. The battle of Kansas ended 38-10 cashing UNDER 54.5. That game was really a no sweat at all until everyone combined for 21 late in the fourth and I had to start doing some math for the first time that game. It felt good to connect with you guys and give you some helpful info AND some plays we could all cash on together.

An epic slate of games this weekend. The Ghost of Rocky Long and Jesse Palmer now haunting my house. What the hell are we firing on?

L’ville at Miami UNDER 48.5, consensus line

App followers know I jammed this line back at 51.5. In choosing these plays Peter and I always want to be transparent, always want to talk real angles and real lines. The line as I type is 48.5 so that is what we are going with. I still want to share the info, but we all hate those online blowhards that celebrate spiking unavailable lines.

We have a few things supporting us this weekend, let’s take a look at the first one I love:

MiamiWInd

Simply put, games in this stadium tend to go UNDER when there is wind. They just so happen to be 15 MPH cross winds this weekend as well. It’s a tedious practice, and you need to be very careful about not cherry picking, but I like to build out as many angle specific systems as possible for locations. We have 100 games, and the wind helps this get to 62% ATS.

My very next thought was, “Well, is it just that Miami as a team goes UNDER?” When pulling all games that haven’t involved Miami but fall under these parameters, I get 10-7, 58.8% ATS. Not enough for me to slam the book and say case closed, but it points us in the right direction.

I’m building my case, I already have a great UNDER system that targets games at Hard Rock Stadium. What else? Back at the start of the season we looked at a system called “Manny Diaz loves his UNDER.” It’s lit again on this game and it currently sits at 30-17-1 for 63.8% ATS.

I had obviously already bet this game at 51.5. I loved that number and was going to bet it regardless of the next clue. Yesterday at 5Dimes, the UNDER was bet and there was a very abrupt and meaningful move on the total. I think it’s meaningful when line adjustments are abrupt. Take a look:

MiamiUNDERsteam

You’re looking at a 40 minute block of time where the UNDER was moved an entire 3 points. There is even a 4 minute piece where the total dropped 1.5 points. That is meaningful to me. If the line stays around 49 or less, I interpret this as a genuine sharp money and I love that in conjunction with our historical information we have on Hard Rock Stadium and Manny Diaz. If this line is hit just as hard towards the OVER, I will suspect it had all been a setup on the total and I will hold my breath as GWB rides with the UNDER 48.5.

Crosswinds at Hard Rock, Manny Diaz loves his UNDERS, abrupt line moves, UNDER 48.5 - Cash dat!

Michigan St -14.5 vs Illinois, Consensus line

What a gross line. Illinois has been on a nice run, and Michigan St has lost 3 games in a row! Even nastier is that this total is sitting at 45 with Sparty giving all those points to Lovie Smith and the Boiz.

There can’t possibly be an angle that supports Michigan St? Let’s take a look:

MichSt222

This game is fascinating to me. This line has moved out 3 points and as previously stated, this total sits at 45 with a spread of 14.5. At first glance that info would scream, “Take the two touchdown Dog!” But let’s look under the hood on our angle when we wander out into these extreme totals and line moves:

Totals of 49.5 or less

MichSt333

Absolutely this could be random. 7-1 doesn’t tell us much, but... this angle is 7-1 when the total is UNDER 50. It actually gets even better if you take it out to 53.5 but I didn’t want to fluff it up by just grabbing winning data points. I felt like games 0-49 points was a good range for Low scoring College Football Games.

Next, I wanted to examine big line moves. Not 1-2 points, meaningful moves - 2.5 to 999. Here’s what we have:

MichSt444

We suffer from sample, but we are seeing 8-1.

Remember, all of these pieces of information are just here to help us make a decision. It’s not black and white, play this, don’t play that, plug and play. If it was that easy then we’d all be rich crushing the books like every twitter tout.

I have an angle I love - Home Favorites on a losing streak. We look under the hood and see that it has treated bettors well when played with low totals and line moves. We have both of those going on. I love that Sparty is currently sitting at 18% of spread tickets! It almost feels like one of those too good to be true lines for Illinois backers. This has 27-7, 26-9, 31-10 type game written all over it.

Michigan St -14.5, Cash dat!

GWB Betting Guide YTD: 12-8-1 +3.16 U

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