I’m coming at you live from the Paris Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas. I was able to enjoy NBA opening night in their less than stellar sports book. I love it because it’s empty and they have a nice couch set up, but don’t let the secret out. Peter and I smashed some Clippers 2h ML, all posted for free on the app. From here I head to LA for a few days, then up to Portland, OR. I’ll be in PDX for my college football grind so I’m hoping I get the same Pacific Northwest Mojo I had when I was there a few weeks ago and spiked that +25 U Saturday.
I loved last weekend. Like I said, I had an entire 36 hours blocked off to focus on a monster sports slate. Saturday involved multiple soccer leagues, NHL, and NCAAF. Unfortunately, the app doesn’t allow me to post English Championship League or English League One. My models have been fruitful there. Premier League has continued a nice season thus far as well. I ended my Saturday around +5 Units.
It’s nothing sexy, but let’s stop and remember how damn hard it is to win and to stay on top of winning. Two weekends ago at the wedding I was happy to escape only down a few units, and here I was on Saturday, firing up Air Force vs Hawaii feeling blah about being up 8.5 Units on the day. The mental aspect of sports betting is the most challenging and so fascinating. I would LOVE to win 5 units a day, but there was something about being tied to the Live Odds Page, refreshing books, monitoring games and lines all day, where those 5 Units felt like, “that’s it?” Such a stupid way to look at it, but that’s where I was mentally. I liken it to a poker player who has been grinding a $50-100 cash game for 24-36 hours and walks from the session up $700. It’s a goddamn grind. I should be more thankful when meat grinder days go my way.
Stop me if you’ve heard this one, last weeks GWB Betting Guide went 1-1 for a nice little split. Auburn rolled Arkansas. The angle we discussed specifically looked at margin of victory ATS in those spots and this one delivered just how was discussed. Big fave on the road trip, blowing out their inferior opponent and smashing the spread along the way. Bama on the other hand - They didn’t cover, and I don’t think they would have covered even if Tua didn’t go out. We will never know, but Tennessee seemed like they wanted to hang around. As I wrote a few months ago, I do have a large piece of Joe Burrow for Heisman at some very big odds. The Tua injury has propelled Burrow as the now favorite to win the award. I’m not cashing anything yet. There is a long road ahead. Jalen Hurts will put up a stellar season and be fierce competition. Burrow can’t falter. I also think LSU needs to beat Bama on Nov 9th. The only way I can see LSU losing that game and Burrow still winning the Heisman, is if he puts up a ridiculous hero game and the Defense fails LSU or something like that.
So, another beautiful weekend of College Football is at our doorstep, what the hell are we firing on?
San Diego St at UNLV UNDER 45, consensus line
You knew I had to dust off Rocky Long at some point this season. After my guest appearance last week on the Ten12 Podcast, where I redeemed myself and went 4-2, a few of you reached out through DM and asked for the Rocky Long info that had me taking the UNDER last week. It’s lit again this week, and I love the spot and the line movement. I figured we could serve it up here to the GWB and hopefully cash another UNDER as Rocky and the Aztecs suffocate their opponent again this Saturday.
Let’s take a look:
Pretty straight forward, When Rocky gets his hands on a conference total 50 or less, he loves to smash that UNDER. Is there another piece to this that jumps out to me? Absolutely:
When Rocky plays the part of the favorite, he shuts the damn game down. SDSU is currently a nice fat -13.5. Rocky grabs a lead and just absolutely squeezes the life out of the clock. 24-6 to the UNDER as a Conference Fave under 50! I don’t think it’s random. You watch the games, you see it. It’s his style. I think, last week there were 0 points scored in the 4th quarter when this same angle cashed.
To see if my theory is correct, I dialed this up. I’ve never built this until now - I can’t say I’m too surprised by the results:
Total doesn’t matter. Dog, favorite, wind, day of the week, line moves, smart money, mafia influence, syndicate diamond lock, ticket %... None of it matters. 2h Under when Rocky Long is standing on the sidelines is an insane 60% ATS with no other qualifications.
I personally bet this game at a better number. GWB is rolling with the UNDER 45. Besides Mr. Long, I love that we have 50/50 betting on the total but have a severe total drop of 2.5 points from the open. Let’s cash!
South Alabama +27 -112 vs Appalachian St
I hate this play. South Alabama is really bad. You watch them and wonder if some of the kids are on the take. They aren’t good ATS. To make matters worse, Appy st is a machine. They are killing the spread as visitors. 9-1 ATS in their past 10 road games. They are prepared. They just came off a game where they dismantled UL Monroe 52-7 and almost hit the spread 3 times over. What the hell are we doing here people?
Sharing angles and ideas and trying to be better my friends. This angle only comes around 2-3 times a year, so I have to share it when I can. Let’s take a look:
Obviously sample is an issue. We are grabbing an extreme situation that doesn’t pop up very often. Wrap your head around how hard it is to be this bad in todays game of College Football. We are backing teams that have a 5 game point streak of 0 to 18 points. That almost feels impossible in this sport in the year 2019. Somehow, South Alabama has achieved this ridiculous distinction. In that 5 game streak, this team is also on a losing streak. When we back them as Dogs? 22-8 ATS. Are there any other clues that help us out on this angle?
Home teams in this spot are 14-4 ATS. I think that helps this week for such a beleaguered team like S Bama. They are on a long break and hopefully have prepped enough for what is basically their biggest game of the year.
I wanted to look at this angle when the opponent is off such a huge ATS victory such as Appalachian St is. The angle is 2-0 when the opp crushed the spread by 20+, but that seems random and pointless to me. I wanted to maybe see if the angle had a lot of occurrences where our team looked horrible previous game and the opponents were absolute spread heros. 2-0, but probably noise.
I love the angle. I think this year’s South Bama team is putrid and they are taking the field vs an ATS buzzsaw. I love that this game is actually attracting a moderate amount of bets (1200 tickets tracked as of this writing) and Appy St is getting 86% spread support. It’s weird to me that this line has only moved 1/1.5 points through a non key number(26). If Appy St was the easy layup as it’s being bet, I feel like this would be on the high side of 28 and maybe touching 30 by Saturday am. This is the type of game Joe P looks at while standing in line to place some bets, looks at the teams records, sees a ranked Mountaineer team and fires away. Hold your nose, let’s cash dat!
GWB Betting Guide YTD: 9-8 +0.37 U