This past Saturday was an absolutely epic slate of College Football, and I spent the back half of it at a beautiful wedding in the Santa Cruz mountains. The only problem? Cell phone service was scarce. There were no TVs. God knows I was the only person within 100 miles who was sweating Georgia St vs Coastal Carolina. The groomsmen are kick stepping down the aisle and i’m trying to hit a sly refresh on my iPhone with one bar of 1x service praying that the scores update. With such futile means to check scores, I focused on the ceremony. I figured the Gambling Gods and the Ghost of Rocky Long would grace me with some no sweat cash and some epic comebacks for my good behaviour. Sure enough, when the party moved to the reception hall, I grabbed that WiFi and sweated out LSU covering the -13.5 (and Joe Burrow helping my MVP bet on him). I ended the day only about -5 U, which I consider a win on an 80 bet day where things never really get going. All the losses were attributed to NHL and MLB. Go figure.
This weekend is another dream scenario - 100% free schedule so I can man the computer from 7am until about 9pm. Full grind pro day - 1h bets, 2h bets, the Live Odds page up all day, all of my local books up and pages being refreshed so I can max bet any arbitrage that pops up. Lots of caffeine and lots of focus. Premier League, England League One, NHL, and a big slate of NCAAF. The only way to come down from an awesome day like that is with a fresh joint during the second half of Air Force at Hawaii. If I’m +20 u or more, it will take two joints. I'm passionate about the process involved in an intense day like the one I have coming up. Anyone ridiculous enough to follow along on the app, feel free.
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before - the GWB Betting Guide split last week. UNLV crushed that +14.5 and won SU at Vandy. The angle I shared last week with them has to one of my favorite bangers of all time. Fresno St on the other hand got jailhoused by our boys in blue, Air Force. The Bulldogs hung around for a few quarters and then just absolutely fell apart. Ghost of Rocky Long... will you please reward my good wedding score check behaviour with a little GWB sweep this week?
Let’s take a look at what we’re firing on:
Alabama -34.5 vs Tennessee, consensus line
Yes my friends, the GWB is grabbing this line and backing a big public favorite this weekend. There’s a few layers to it, and one is an angle that I absolutely love which only comes around a few times a year.
First, let’s discuss my model discrepancy. I have Bama -39 in this game. Although, I currently have a 4.5 point difference with the market price, I don’t put too much stock in spread discrepancies when the spread is so large. 4.5 Points is a big deal if we are talking a difference of say +2.5 to +7, but in actual gameplay, a difference of +34.5 and +39 doesn’t get me excited. The “value” of those 4.5 points doesn’t carry the same weight with these giant spreads as opposed to when the difference is down in the single digits crossing key numbers.
So I’ve shrugged off my perceived edge on the models price, what am I looking at?
I have two related angles lit up on Bama with no opposing systems for Tennessee. Both angles center around High Scoring Conference Home teams. It’s fun thinking back on the teams that cashed this angle for me the past few years. Lamar Jackson at L’ville ran this up for me. Mason Rudolph (NFL OROY in another version of reality) at OK St smashed this angle a ton. This week we have an opportunity to fire on Tua and his video game type output.
Before I post the line items, I battle with this system all the time. I love it. It makes logical sense to me. EVERY time I open I have to ask myself, is this cherry picked nonsense? A key that helps me cap games, is to be constantly questioning yourself and what you’re looking at.
This is the angle that will tip my decision causing me to back Alabama.
The spread range I do not love at all. It feels like I pulled out a range that performs well and said, “See! This angle is profitable!” So, here is where I’m torn - the original Idea for this came simply from finding teams that were scoring a lot of points for consecutive games, and then being hung with a big spread that is still lower than their offensive output.
I wanted to find big spreads that would indicate a mismatch of teams. I wasn’t interested in lines like -4, -10, etc. I wanted teams that were at least 3 score favorites. The challenge was also finding a large spread that was under the teams 5 game scoring streak, since that was the original motivation for building this out. Sure enough, those home conference teams putting up 35 points+ for 5 games straight were profitable with the spread lower than their output.
A very important clue that the idea has legs - moving the spread range from -34.5 to +999 and this angle is still 17% ROI. It shows that we still have a highly profitable angle by essentially removing the spread range altogether and simply looking at Home Conference teams on a five game point streak of 35+. By targeting only -34.5 to -20.5, I get the type of matchups I want to bet (“good team” vs “outmatched team”).
I think that helped give insight into my thinking and my thought process when building a system. I love firing this angle - Crimson Tide, cash dat!
Auburn -19 at Arkansas
Whoa! GWB is going with two big SEC faves this weekend!
This is another simple angle that you should build out. It has no moving parts and I think follows logic in it’s line items. Let’s take a look:
The inspiration on this one was pretty simple. I wanted to see what strong favorites on a road trip looked like against bad teams. I was pleasantly surprised by this outcome with these simple line items. There is one big key that makes me love this angle - look at that margin of victory! These teams are covering by an average of 6.5 points ATS! That means this angle is grabbing a ton of blowouts, which is what one might expect when strong faves (-14.5 and up) roll into town vs bad teams.
Another layer to this angle that I think helps support our play this week:
When we look at this angle in regards to game number, we can see it really starts to build momentum around game 5 or 6. In the most simplistic sense - the bad teams are bad, and the strong faves are covering. From Week 8 and on, the margin jumps to 7.3 points! That screams that these teams who are 0-35% win % are getting rolled in this spot.
I think Auburn cashes the -19. 37-13, 41-10, somewhere in that range is what I feel like will unfold. Maybe a tight first half, and a 2h that sees Auburn score 17-0 type vibe.
War Eagle! Cash Dat!
GWB Betting Guide YTD: 8-7 +0.44 Units