This betting on sports thing sure is fun when you’re actually winning. I never know which of you readers actually follow along with my action on Saturdays, but this past week was fun as we stacked all day. I landed in Portland, OR around 2:30 pm and went straight to the Gold Club to start drinking. I knew I would be celebrating a good day, or drinking away the fact that I was up around 15 Units midday and the night slate wiped me clean. I ended around +26 Units, and the wild part is, I felt like I had some bad beats! UNLV +24.5 blew it, LA Kings collapsed, Tulsa gave up the ML win (I had .5 U at +380), Western Mich teased the backdoor a few times... I live for Saturdays like the one I just had, I just get a kick out of seeing how close I was to +37 U type day where your soul goes to Valhalla and is draped across the steps for the Gods of Gambling to marvel at.
Like a true Grinder with Blinders, you leave an epic day like that in the past. Not phased on the way down, not phased on the way up.
Public Service announcement that I bring up every year: These next two months are monstrous on the bank roll. October and November are by far the highest volume months and you NEED to be funded if you’re going to be diving in. College Football, NFL, MLB Playoffs, NHL, NBA is starting up, all soccer leagues are flying now. The next 4-5 Saturdays I will easily eclipse 125 plays. It’s a thing of beauty, but you need to be aware of it.
Last weeks Betting Guide shared some awesome angles that once again went 1-1 for us. I don’t mind the split - the info is getting out there and we are getting smarter, the plays just aren’t spiking as well as we are hoping. Maryland -13 was never in doubt. I loved the angle we played, and the peel back spot we looked at is now 5-0?! So weird. Too small of a sample to deduct anything, but it’s certainly interesting. Arkansas St failed to cover the -6.5, losing SU. I loved the game, loved our pick, I don’t think I was too far off breaking the game down and looking at the Box System. Things just simply didn’t go our way. Let’s try to mini sweep this week - what the hell are we firing on?
Fresno St +3 at Air Force, consensus line
One thing I like seeing before I even dig into a game like this is that my model has Fresno St about -1.5 going into this game. So, before any nice angles or narrative, I feel ahead of the curve on this line. AFA is off of a wild game vs Navy where the lead changed hands a few times over the last few minutes and the total flew over (Peter and I spoke last week about Military Unders. If everyone on earth is betting them and talking about them, is there really any angle at all?). Fresno St is coming off a bye week, and Air Force is returning home after a wild loss vs Navy. I’m going to share an angle that I found really interesting:
This is Fade system.
Look, NO sample to speak of, so be aware this maybe noise. I feel like there is some validity to this. When service teams go on the road and play a service team, then come home and have a spread to cover, they simply don’t do well. I had a friend who played D Line at Navy about 15 years ago, and I recall him saying that the service schools definitely get up to play each other and the weeks are treated differently. I do believe there is some level of let down going on, and I find it interesting that fading these schools when they have points to cover is 15-5 ATS.
Small anecdotal angle that applies to this game but is just a clue to help us make a decision - when the opponent, in this case Fresno St, has more than a week off to prepare for the game, those teams are 3-0 ATS.
The logic is there, I have Fresno St as a favorite in this spot, the angle is interesting, and I love the wrinkle of Fresno St coming off a bye in this spot. I see the Bulldogs winning SU, but here at GWB we will go with the +3. Let’s cash!
UNLV +14.5 at Vanderbilt, consensus line
Finally, a GWB classic banger. UNLV sucks, they can’t score, they are on a losing streak, last week they let down their backers in brutal fashion, and now they go on the road to play an SEC team. Sounds like a perfect spot to bet them?
This next angle is one I share every year, but I genuinely find it’s important to have for any capper using Labs. Let’s take a look and then we can discuss:
UNLV finds itself in this spot this week, and it is a strong reason why we will back them. Any serious labs user who is trying to build themselves as many layers of information as you can - build out as many simple “can’t score 3 game, 4 game, 5 game, etc” that you can.
One part of this week’s matchup I can’t totally put my finger on - when the dog is +13 to +22 in our spread range, the angle really spikes dramatically. It’s something to do with the distribution of points scored between the two teams within this spread/total range that allows the dog in that range to cover at a high clip. Dogs in that range are 41-10 ATS!? Why? How? Noise and bullshit?
I love that we are catching UNLV in this “can’t score” spot after tons of bettors had their bail out game ruined by them last weekend. It’s a subtle piece of narrative that bettors will remember. Scott Van Pelt ran UNLV as a bad beat last week. That’s important to some degree as bettors will stay away. Add in the layers that UNLV was steamed at +16 and +14.5 by Pinnacle and Circa respectively and it feels like a quiet sharp side is coming together on this game.
Bad team, can’t score, bad beat material last week, sharp money moves on UNLV, great angle where we find ourselves in an interesting range for a crazy ROI spike. All the clues point to backing UNLV this weekend. Cash Dat!
GWB Betting Guide YTD: 7-6 +0.51