Thank god I was drunk from 1pm and on this past Saturday. I was experiencing death by lost wagers. My previous few weekends went like this: “Crushed in the morning, fought back to small loss on the day.” Saturday I was in Scottsdale, AZ enjoying some 90 degree weather and my huge board of bets went like this: “Crushed in the morning, crushed a little more throughout the day.” No other choice but to keep partying, drinking, and push through a brutal day. My losses were around 10k. I’ve had plenty of worse days betting, but it was def dragging down the good vibes I had going on with the bachelorette party that was back at our cabana. Taking shots with girls in their mid 20’s and they are wondering why I’m so glued to the Miss St v Auburn game that was on. You ladies will understand when you’re married, jaded, and your husbands sole piece of sanity is betting beer money on College Football. “What’s that? You love hiking, yoga, brunch, and you’re wondering who has party drugs? Sorry, I’d love to chat, but UNLV is fucking my ass as we speak (Had them +10 pretty big, they lost by 36)”
The Week 5 Betting Guide fared as well as one would imagine on a bloodbath weekend. We posted a nice 0-2 on the plays, despite the fact that I loved the angles we shared. No other way to put it - Rutgers sucked. Their head coach earned himself a permanent vacation from the outcome. We had Rutgers +28 and they were pathetic in their 52-0 loss to Michigan. I’m still not sold on the Wolverines, but what do I know.
Akron -7 was DOA as well. There’s really not much else one can ask for as a bettor - Epic Closing Line Value for both myself and the GWB. I had -5, GWB had -7, the game closed at -9.5. UMASS announced the morning of, that they were sitting a bunch of guys. I’m a few Units deep at -5, I’m loving life! Then they actually play the game and Akron showed why they are a pure dogshit football team that can’t win a game and can’t cover a spread. UMASS cruised to a no sweat win, slapping the Zips 37-29. Great angle, great CLV, poor outcome.
As a bettor, I simply dust myself off and work even harder. What the hell are we firing on this week?
Maryland -13 at Rutgers, consensus line as of this writing
My friends and I have a saying. We text it to each other all the time when we are betting on games. LHNM. Life holds no mystery. We backed Rutgers last week and they burned us. I’m going to bet against Rutgers this week, so we know what will happen. LHNM.
I’m hoping we can dodge the universe’s bullet and cash on this really awesome angle that pops up a few times a year. Let’s take a look:
Maryland is coming off a serious beat down. Penn St imposed their will and won, 59-0. It’s really hard to lose that badly in a conference game. So what happens when a team is shut out and then goes on the road for another conference game? They perform at a 60% clip ATS!
So simple - Conference visitor after being shut out.
You might look at that -13 and think, “yeah but as a favorite?” Faves are 13-4 in this spot. Just to take a look, I dialed it up when BOTH teams are off of being shutout (Rutgers lost 52-0). The road team is 4-0 ATS in these situations.
Small samples, but I do think there is something meaningful with those numbers when examined in the context of the overall angle.
I actually think both teams suck. I think Maryland is capable of some slight bounce back and cover the -13, Rutgers will be rolling out new coaches and is reeling. Go Terps! LHNM.
Arkansas St -6.5 v Georgia St, line at CRIS, Heritage, Bookmaker
Full disclosure: I don’t love this spot. But it’s a great opportunity to share a Box System that I love, and a piece of capping that I employ when breaking down games.
Arky St is on a road trip, and they are winning games - let’s take a look:
Two things I love right away. Great sample size for a College Football angle, and a simple Box System.
A favorite who is on a road trip and has been winning. No moving parts, not conference specific, not low totals only, nothing. Big Sample Simplicity is a great place to be working in when you’re building angles in Bet Labs.
So, Arky St obviously covers these basic parameters. There are two small wrinkles that really help support this play for me:
Arky St is off a straight up win last week against Troy as 7 point underdogs. Teams off a SU win as a dog in this system jump to 59% ATS with an ROI of 15%. This is meaningful to me because I interpret this information as giving us a clue that maybe this team is undervalued.
Arky St won straight up as a +7 dog. Now they find themselves at a price the following week that historically a team in their situation would cover 59% of the time?
I read that as they were mispriced last week vs Troy, and now we have an edge as bettors because they are mispriced again. It’s not a situation that will win all the time, but a situation we will win 59% of the time. I hope I’m not taking you too far down the rabbit hole.
Another X Factor in all of this is Arkansas St QB Layne Hatcher. The dual threat QB transferred from Alabama this past spring. Logan Bonner hurt his thumb and has been shut down for the season. Hatcher has been given the nod. This is important and is part of Arky St perhaps not being priced correctly this week:
Most pricing models incorporate “priors” or how a team has performed in the previous games, previous seasons, etc. We could say that the addition of Hatcher makes some of the “priors” used in Arky St modeling a moot point. Perhaps their previous 4 games this season without him aren’t quite as indicative of the team performance which would lead to some level of being mispriced at this point.
The point above is what lead to +7 being a “soft line” last week and we were getting Arky St at a great price.
Pricing models still aren’t fully accounting for Hatcher this week, as they are drawing on priors, and the -6.5 is a cheap price for the Red Wolves.
I have a historical model with a great sample that is supporting this train of thought.
The capping aspect and the mystery in this is just how good Hatcher is or isn’t. I would lean to the side that he’s above an “Average QB” in a conference like the Sun Belt. The question becomes is he markedly better? With the information I have, I think there is a realistic chance that Layne Hatcher is measurably better than Logan Bonner and other QBs in the conference.
So, firing on Arky St -6.5: We have a great historical angle that supports the play. We have a QB switch, which may be playing a role in what I think is a mispriced Arky St team. We have a historical angle that suggests the previous sentence may be true. We have a QB that we deduct may be helping the Red Wolves outperform what a model suggests.
Simply put, I think we are getting a great price on an Arky St team that will cover the -6.5 almost 60% of the time. Cash dat!
GWB Betting Guide YTD: 6-5 +0.58U