We are in the thick of it! I’m about -20 units on the season betting College Football but I’m weirdly having a really fun season doing it. Unfortunately, I’ve missed on some of my heavier bets while the smaller wagers grind me back. This past weekend was awesome - as I wrote in last weeks Betting Guide, I had the entire Friday night/Saturday cleared to watch, fire, take notes, and work on College Football. My brain was fried while watching UCLA mount the epic comeback against Wash St, but what a way to keep me focused! Saturday morning started as poorly as any stretch of NCAAF had been for me in years. Literally -30 U by noon pacific. My head was spinning. Nothing hit. 2h bets whiffed. It was a repeat of the previous week and it was tough to stomach.
One of my good friends and I were texting about the carnage. Told him I was focused and would claw back. Sure enough, when the dust settled I was -7.2 Units on the day and it felt like an epic victory. Toledo OVER, Colorado Spread and ML, Ok St, Ok St UNDER, UTSA Under, San Jose St Spread and ML, Oregon, Oregon Under - I STACKED the evening. Not saying it to sound like a tout pumping wins on a losing day, saying it because the day felt like a victory despite ending in the red. You guys know well enough now - I don’t sell anything, I don’t promise any riches, and I’m fully transparent with every single bet I make across all sports. All I can do is keep plugging away and keep trying to improve my numbers, my capping ability, my staking, and my decision making.
GWB Week 4 Guide hit you with another Split decision. Line moves are a funny thing - We had Boist St capped well in my opinion. We sent out -7.5 and AFA kept getting pounded. There was even some Juiced up -6.5 for a few minutes! AFA dropped from +9.5 to +7 and it felt like we were holding the shit end of the stick. But none of the moves made sense to me and I loved the angle we had backing Boise St. Sure enough, they came through with a nice cover for us. Line moves crazy against us, and we cash. Go Figure. Iowa St UNDER 56 was the other play. We looked like genius line readers as it was down to 51 and 51.5 by Saturday morning! Our angles were tight, we were way out ahead of the market, I felt great. Once the game was played and the dust settled, the final score was only… (checks notes)... 72-20!? The Cyclones CRUSHED the total on their own. Hell, we were a few scores from doubling the total. Everything lined up great for what I thought would be a nice cash. Line moves crazy in our favor, and we get blasted. Go figure.
Let’s stack a few wins this week and learn some new angles - what are we firing on?
Rutgers +28 at Michigan, consensus line as of this writing:
There’s a lot to love about Rutgers this week. They are horrible, they are currently getting well below 40% of the spread tickets (i.e. nobody wants to bet them), I have a lot of different angles lit on them - Power 5 road dogs, spread differential range is good, conference visitors with a low total - plenty of classics.
Before I post the angle that GWB will be officially firing on, I also think there is an element of capping involved. I think most bettors will be assuming there is going to be some sort of Michigan bounce back this week after their blowout loss to Wisconsin. I’m not so sure about that. Hey, maybe Michigan comes out and wins 48-6, it’s certainly a possibility. This year's Michigan team has the look and feel of a team that simply isn’t as good as everyone thought they would be. Giving up 21 in Week 1 vs an “ok at best” Middle Tennessee State team? Stealing a win at home vs Army? Getting absolutely rolled in WIsconsin? I think there’s a possibility the Wolverines simply aren’t very good. I’m not implying these guys are down with the Colorado St and Liberty’s of the world, but I’m not sure we are even looking at a top 20 team in the country. Performance wise, I have Michigan running in a pack with teams like Baylor, Virginia, Ok St.
So before even loving the angle I’m going to post, I already see +28 as having some level of value. I think Rutgers can score more than 14 points. I think they will score 17-24 points on Michigan. This game should have around 45-50 points scored total. I see a game very similar to the Wolverines Week 1 40-21 win going down. I have more to speak on this game, but let’s take a look at the classic angle we fired on last year as well:
Small Sample, bad ass idea.
Fade those ranked teams after being blown out. We are simply fading favorites after losing by 14 or more. There’s an element of simply going against what Joe P bettors would think. “This team will bounce back!”, well...... not really.
The line Item “Opp previous game the team was the Home team.” I will admit it’s a slight head scratcher - there’s a huge ROI split on this one. For some reason when the team we are backing is coming off a home game, this system spikes to the monstrous 71% ATS we are looking at.
We can only write about and fire on the lines available day of. We are going with +28. I do think we will see this line go out another point or two - my personal recommendation is to wait a few days. I think +29 or even +30 might be available by Saturday. Go Rutgers!
Akron -7 -112 vs UMASS
Oh hell, backing these crap teams is not ideal. But here we are, the hells we choose.
Yes - we are going with Akron as a ROAD FAVORITE OF A TOUCHDOWN. LOL. I swear I havent started drinking yet. Anyone following me on the app knows that I saw this angle light up on my Live Odds page and I fired Akron at -5 and came back again at -6. I think the line moves are indicative of some sharp action hitting Akron and I think they are the correct side. 5Dimes had a steam move at -5, CRIS had a move at -6, and since then moves have been trading on 7 with both teams at multiple books.
We get to fire on one of my favorite systems, and I’ve been hesitant to share it too much with people. Let’s take a look:
You can parse this up and really make the ROI jump, but as you already know - I love the simplicity we are dealing with.
By game 5 and 6, non home teams with 0% ATS crush the number. No moving parts, no spread filters, simply backing teams that are 0% ATS.
You came this far to read about cases being made to bet on Rutgers and Akron. I agree it sounds completely nuts! I have had two weeks of digging out of early morning holes, I hope to switch that up and cash all day in College Football. I’ll be in Scottsdale all weekend hitting strip clubs, pool parties, and Top Golf. If anyone is around, drinks on me!
GWB Betting Guide YTD: 6-3 +2.58 U