Here we go, starting to hit the midseason stride with big Saturday slates of Conference games! Week 4 is upon us and I’m coming off a really fun weekend in South Lake Tahoe. I indulge in life's most important moments - drinking, getting laid, and sweating games. My Saturday was a small loser, and the way to day went on, it felt like I had won big. I had hit Florida -8 -120 pretty big, earlier in the week. I caught a few glimpses at some bars and casinos, but assumed it was a -5 U hit until the final score flashed 29-21. WTF!? A miracle push that was as sweet as a win. Last year I lost Indiana +9 when Michigan St ran a 50 yard TD running out the clock. This felt like some small payback. The late night swing fell into place and brought me back to a negligible loss on the day. One small lesson here for cappers and high volume guys:
It’s a challenge to not have bad days have an impact on your mood. It’s easier said than done, I know first hand. I was spending a freeroll weekend with all of my favorite vices and a very fun female. She is supportive of the sweat and encourages me to pursue my passion of blasting the board and capping games. At 2pm, when you’re -14 Units on the day and staring down red dots that are projecting -24 Units heading into the night swing, it is hard to be fully present in the moment and appreciate all the good things around oneself. Work has been put into the plays. There is an expectation that things will go well for your bankroll. For most guys, -20 units means a hit of probably $2,000 to $10,000. I’ll have another shot of Maker’s with a Goose, Soda, Lemon back please. So that Florida -8 PUSH was a gift. My spirits turned as Oklahoma cruised. Texas, SDSU, Boise St, Arizona, Montana, and Cemson all came through as well. I had dug out of the hole to a number that I don’t even sweat. I was able to focus on the evening and not have it weigh on me. Losses messing your piece of mind is not the best sounding thing to admit to oneself, but it’s reality and something that most of us probably deal with to some degree.
GWB Betting Guide hit another splitty week. Charlotte helped us to a no sweat W as -20 faves over UMASS. Akron +3 was bet down to +1, then floated back to +3 the morning of. I didn’t love that line move at the end. It was giving us clues. Akron got rolled 45-24 by the Chippewas. Maybe that’s what I get for suggesting we bet a team based on my angle called “This Team Sucks.” The universe has a funny way of handing you 1-1 for the weekend on your plays.
What are we hitting this weekend?
UL Monroe vs Iowa St UNDER 56 -117, available at most books at time of writing
I personally like this line down to 52.5, but I have already hit this at 56 -117 on the app. There’s a few things going on here - a few angles I have lit on the UNDER and some old school capping and situational spots. Let’s take a look at an angle I have built:
This comes down to the kind of capper you are. It is my personal opinion that there is validity to spots like this. I think wind absolutely plays a part in totals in college football. I also think that some stadiums are more susceptible to unders when wind comes into play. Jack Trice Stadium is one of those places.
We get about 3-4 plays a year based on this angle, and the chart is actually pretty smooth. That’s a good sign - we didn’t get a big spike in 2011 that we are still hanging our hats on. We have a nice consistent build over the past 7-8 years, which is a nice clue that there is something there.
I don’t know how much value I put into this, but the UNDER jumps to 10-1 in this wind spot when Iowa St is a double digit home fave. I’m sharing that info, and that number seems awesome to me. I will also admit that it’s hard to quantify if it’s random noise or a signal of something valuable.
Iowa St is also coming off a game vs Iowa. There is no hard angle or historical data I’m pointing to with this old school approach. What I am seeing is a team off of a Rivalry game, who is now at home vs a greatly inferior opponent. I deduct that that spot could lead to some level of drop off in play for maybe just a quarter or so. A few stalled drives, settling for Field Goals, all in conjunction with 12+ mph winds in a stadium that produces UNDERS in the wind. Grabbing a key 56, all signs point me to betting the UNDER this Saturday.
Boise St -7.5 vs Air Force, line available at most books
Full disclosure - I have not personally bet this game at this price yet. We are going with this play for GWB so I can share some great information that only hits a few times a year, so I thought this game would be a nice spot to go over it. Let’s take a look at this strong Box system:
Very simple idea that people often site when capping games for short week teams, but I wanted to literally see the numbers on the situation. I love the logic - Conference visitors on a short week coming off a win as visitors. You will hear this mentioned as maybe a let down spot for the visitor. Perhaps not enough time to prepare for the next opponent. People often say that situations like this are baked into the line, and maybe they are, I don’t know one way or another. FWIW, this box system has performed very well ATS the past few years.
Just by the nature of the system, our sample size leaves much to be desired. That falls back on you as the capper - is there something to a short week angle? Is there anything to a “let down” type situation. I’m 50/50 on it. It’s elusive. It’s hard to quantify. It’s where the art/science of this kind of stuff comes in. It’s subtle, but situations like this go beyond power ratings in my opinion.
Air Force opened +9.5 and was bet down almost immediately to +8.5. In the past few days it has inched down to the 7.5 we are sitting at now. I think this favors Boise St in this spot.
Last we checked in with Boise St, they were struggling against Marshall and looking average. They quietly blew out Portland St this past weekend while nobody was watching or caring. Air Force on the other hand won Straight Up on Saturday on one of the higher bet games of the weekend. They were dogs who went to OT with Colorado and burned Buffs backers. I think there is an element of recency bias with this line. When capping a game like this, I would consider the Box system, look at what my line was for the game (Boise -10.3), and then walk through what I think is going on with narrative, public perception, line movement, etc.
Broncos -7.5 under the Friday night lights. Cash Dat!
GWB Betting Guide YTD: 5-2, +2.65 U